Authoritarianism is not a new, untested concept
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Authoritarianism is not a new, untested concept in the American
electorate. Since the rise of Nazi Germany, it has been one of the most
widely studied ideas in social science. While its causes are still
debated, the political behavior of authoritarians is not. Authoritarians
obey. They rally to and follow strong leaders. And they respond
aggressively to outsiders, especially when they feel threatened. From
pledging to “make America great again” by building a wall on the border
to promising to close mosques and ban Muslims from visiting the United
States, Trump is playing directly to authoritarian inclinations.
Not all authoritarians are Republicans by any means; in national surveys
since 1992, many authoritarians have also self-identified as
independents and Democrats. And in the 2008 Democratic primary, the
political scientist Marc Hetherington found that authoritarianism
mattered more than income, ideology, gender, age and education in
predicting whether voters preferred Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.
But Hetherington has also found, based on 14 years of polling, that
authoritarians have steadily moved from the Democratic to the Republican
Party over time. He hypothesizes that the trend began decades ago, as
Democrats embraced civil rights, gay rights, employment protections and
other political positions valuing freedom and equality. In my poll
results, authoritarianism was not a statistically significant factor in
the Democratic primary race, at least not so far, but it does appear to
be playing an important role on the Republican side. Indeed, 49 percent
of likely Republican primary voters I surveyed score in the top quarter
of the authoritarian scale—more than twice as many as Democratic voters.
Political pollsters have missed this key component of Trump’s support
because they simply don’t include questions about authoritarianism in
their polls. In addition to the typical battery of demographic, horse
race, thermometer-scale and policy questions, my poll asked a set of
four simple survey questions that political scientists have employed
since 1992 to measure inclination toward authoritarianism. These
questions pertain to child-rearing: whether it is more important for the
voter to have a child who is respectful or independent; obedient or
self-reliant; well-behaved or considerate; and well-mannered or curious.
Respondents who pick the first option in each of these questions are
strongly authoritarian.
Based on these questions, Trump was the only candidate—Republican or
Democrat—whose support among authoritarians was statistically
significant.
So what does this mean for the election? It doesn’t just help us
understand what motivates Trump’s backers—it suggests that his support
isn’t capped. In a statistical analysis of the polling results, I found
that Trump has already captured 43 percent of Republican primary voters
who are strong authoritarians, and 37 percent of Republican
authoritarians overall. A majority of Republican authoritarians in my
poll also strongly supported Trump’s proposals to deport 11 million
illegal immigrants, prohibit Muslims from entering the United States,
shutter mosques and establish a nationwide database that track Muslims.
...
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place, we are entering a period of consequences." - Winston Churchill, The Gathering Storm
The Country Sees ‘Fascist Undertones’ In Donald Trump’s Campaign: New Survey
And just about as many say he encourages violence at his rallies.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves as he speaks to
supporters at his primary election night event this week in Florida.
Half of America believes Donald Trump’s campaign exhibits fascist
undertones, with only 30 percent disagreeing, according to a new
HuffPost/YouGov poll. The sentiment isn’t contained to Democrats, who
unsurprisingly are willing to agree with a negative statement about
their political rivals. Forty-five percent of independents also say
Trump’s campaign has echoes of fascism, as do a full 28 percent of
Republicans.
About half the country believes Trump encourages violence at his
campaign events, with just 34 percent saying he doesn’t. The rest aren’t
sure. Meanwhile, 27 percent of Republicans say it’s acceptable to
“rough up” protesters at political events.
The survey comes in the wake of dozens of arrests and physical
altercations tied to Trump’s campaign rallies, including clashes after
an event was canceled in Chicago.
Trump, who once offered to pay his supporters’ legal fees if they “knock
the crap out of” potential tomato-throwers, has since sought to
downplay the frequency of such problems.
“The press is now going, they’re saying, ‘Oh, but there’s such
violence.’ No violence. You know how many people have been hurt at our
rallies? I think, like, basically none except maybe somebody got hit
once,” the businessman said last week in North Carolina.
Most Americans, though, have a very different impression. Two-thirds say
there’s more violence at Trump’s events than at those for other
candidates, with 62 percent saying the clashes are part of a broader
pattern rather than isolated incidents.
That level of agreement on such a politically charged question is itself
unusual. It far outstrips, for example, the fraction of the public that
sees a broad pattern of police violence against black men.
It even extends somewhat to the GOP: A 55 percent majority of
Republicans consider Trump’s events unusually violent, and 61 percent
believe the violent clashes are part of a bigger pattern.
Who’s To Blame?
The data indicates that people generally consider protesters and the
media to be most responsible for the uptick in violence, even if they
also agree that Trump fans the flames. Fifty-four percent say protesters
shoulder “a lot” of the blame, 41 percent say Trump’s supporters do and
47 percent say Trump himself does.
Only 23 percent of Republicans, though, say Trump is largely
responsible, with barely one-quarter believing that he encourages
violence.
Republicans place even less blame on Trump’s supporters, as just 18
percent say they bear a lot of responsibility. In contrast, half place
that level of blame on “the mainstream media,” and 78 percent put that
degree of fault on protesters.
While some of the GOP response is likely due to rallying around the
party’s front-runner, Republicans are also less amenable toward
protesting in general. They’re 20 points less likely than Democrats to
say it’s acceptable for protesters to turn up at candidates’ rallies,
and nearly twice as likely to say it’s all right for those protesters to
be thrown out.
The fact that such violence is continuing to happen — and that it seems
to be at least condoned by the Trump campaign — is enough to give pause
to much of the public regarding the nature of Trump’s candidacy, the
survey finds.
A lot of the talk about Trump’s post-primary prospects revolves around
his ability to reverse the overwhelmingly negative impression he’s so
far made on most of the country.
In recent speeches, he has previewed some arguments he would make in the
general election. Many, like focusing on people left behind by the
economy, are relatively moderate, and have the potential to resonate
across party lines. Convincing voters that he has the temperament to
take office — or, at the very minimum, that he’s not a would-be fascist —
may be the tougher sell.
The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews
conducted March 14-16 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from
YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other
characteristics of the adult U.S. population.
...
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place, we are entering a period of consequences." - Winston Churchill, The Gathering Storm
