Tuesday, March 16, 2004

Nader: What Impact?

God, I hope the Zogman is right ...

James J. Zogby
March 9, 2004

"...how national polls would be impacted by his decision to enter the 2004 presidential contest. The early results are now in and it appears that, at least at this point, Nader takes some support from the Democrat, Senator John Kerry. Without Nader in the race, most polls are showing Kerry leading over Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by one to four points. When Nader's name is added, however, the polls show Bush beating Kerry by one or two points.

In many ways, this year's contest may be a replay of 2000's presidential match up.
...But now for a reality check: This year's election will be like 2000's race in only one way; it will be close. Voters are already showing signs of being evenly divided. What is different is the intensity of the division between those who support George W. Bush's reelection and those who support John Kerry. It appears, even at this early point, that both Bush and Kerry are each guaranteed at least 45% of the vote leaving less than 10 percent still to be decided. While early polls show Nader picking up some of that undecided vote, I believe that as we get closer to the November election those voters will make a decision between Bush or Kerry, ultimately leaving Nader with less than one percent of the overall vote. "


...Got a problem widdat?

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