Monday, November 17, 2008

Meanwhile, back at the train wreck

formerly known as The Economy, the evidence of the tipping point receding in the rear view mirror continues to mount ...

"The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -25.4 (DE: -28.5, Consensus: -26.0) in November from -24.6 in October. The result is the lowest in the Index's brief history (it began in 2001). New orders fell sharply for the second straight month, with the index falling to -22.2 from -20.5. Shipments also fell again, dropping to -13.9 from -8.9 in October. As a result of orders falling more sharply than shipments, unfilled orders fell as well, with the index reading -24.1 from last month's -12.2. This was the 8th straight month of falling unfilled orders.

The story of this report however, was the deterioration of the employment index, which fell to -28.9 from -3.7 last month. The reading was the worst since December 2001.

The average employee workweek also dropped, with the index falling to -25.3 from -9.8. Meanwhile, expectations for employment six months from now turned negative, hitting -4.2 from 1.1 in October. Only once in the history of the series (September 2001) did the expected employment index turn negative. In 2001 however, that result was almost certainly September 11th related, as the expected index read 15.5 in August, and rebounded to 8.0 in October. This time around, it likely reflects a sharp deterioration in the economic outlook."

... In other words, it's not just getting worse, it's getting worse faster and faster. This means it's going to get REALLY BAD before it even starts to get bad more slowly. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED.


"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place, we are entering a period of consequences." - Winston Churchill, The Gathering Storm

No comments: